We need to look at how we can phase out coal in ten years, and we need to make Denmark fossil-free by quadrupling its installed wind capacity. These were the messages communicated by Denmark's Minister for Climate and Energy, Rasmus Helveg Petersen, in late October. Since then, the pros and cons of an earlier end date for the use of coal and a more ambitious wind power strategy have been ardently discussed.
Hav & Kaj recently spoke to Lars Aagaard about the consequences of accelerating the phase-out of coal to 2025 and getting more wind energy into the power grid. Mr Aagaard is head of the Danish Energy Association, which represents energy companies, including coal-fired power stations.
No guarantee of green power
According to Mr Aagaard, a quadrupling of installed wind capacity is within reach, but it's a tall challenge, and getting there will require massive investments. Also, cross-border connections will be a major factor in ensuring that we will also have electricity when no wind power can be generated and that we can export any excess wind power generated in Denmark.
“We need to bring power across the border from Germany and other countries relying widely on coal for many, many years ahead. This means that the power we will receive won't necessarily be green,” Mr Aagaard stresses. He also points out that we cannot rely exclusively on cross-border cables for reliability of supply. This raises the question of whether the Danish government wants to pay for capacity that can deliver power when no wind power can be generated.
“A transition to green power will only be successful if it pays to develop new solutions and install new production capacity,” Mr Aagaard stresses. He continues:
“We will not have the best system if we have to implement it in a rushed phase-in process based on an even greater share of wind power.”
Ambition for 2025 is a threat against the Esbjergværket power station
Mr Aagaard is sceptical of an outright ban on coal, which he believes would also be a problem for Esbjerg.
“Danish power stations would definitely lose on a coal ban. For Esbjerg, this is not an unimportant discussion, as it could very well push a closing of the Esbjergværket power station forward to sometime before 2020. There is a real risk that the announced phase-out of coal as early as in 2025 will be expensive. And it is imperative that this bill not be sent to the citizens of Esbjerg and the owners of the power stations to pay,” states the head of the Danish Energy Association.
But what about biomass, which is an obvious alternative to coal in Esbjerg and other places? Mr Aagaard agrees completely that biomass is an important part of the future energy supply and explains that the sector has already transitioned a host of facilities to biomass. But he cautions:
“It's all about timing the transition so that it will not leave an expensive bill to be paid by society in general. A premature phase-out of coal would be a real threat to the future of the Esbjergværket plant.”
We need coal when no wind power can be generated
Generally, Mr Aagaard doesn't doubt that the price of forcing through a ban on coal would be steep:
“Existing power stations would be squeezed out. Reliability of supply would be impaired, and consumers would probably have to pay a higher price for energy. This would reduce the confidence of customers and society at large in electricity as the main energy source of the future. Imagine the losses inflicted on our business sector if the power supply fails.”
Consequently, the head of the Danish Energy Association sees nothing to be gained from putting a stop to coal as early as 2025:
“A hasty decision to phase out coal would only complicate the situation unnecessarily. Our transition to green energy already sends a strong signal to the rest of the world,” concludes Mr Aagaard, who believes that coal and gas should be components of the energy mix in 2025, once the backbone of our energy system is wind, solar and biomass energy.
“For a number of years ahead, coal and gas will remain the optimum way to fill in the gaps when no wind or solar power can be generated.”
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